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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to embrace a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "serious consequences" last August if Putin persisted blocking truce discussions, the former president eventually introduced considerable restrictions on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, he has seemingly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although ringing statements that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively undermine that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president seems to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic land disagreement, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will satisfy the ruler. But, Russia's war is not simply about dominating a charred region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in place the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would make Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the site of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that are a critical barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these positions, leaving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital if he subsequently opt to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would enable future hostilities easier for the Russian military, Trump would force the nation to cut the size of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's efforts to depict Ukraine's chosen by the people government as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "All Nazi ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that Putin endanger his dictatorship by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the plan includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "attack other states" and to "establish in regulation its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community believe Putin on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the plan threatens a "strong unified defense action" in case Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the details include fuzzy to troubling. The proposal would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "major, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a military response. But in contrast to a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against additional hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not