Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
