Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”