🔗 Share this article

Amid the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.