A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
